Premium quality, objective, unbiased, timely, "on-the-ground", comprehensive research of the housing market that our clients can trust and act upon. Our goal is to be our clients "eyes and ears" on the ground, so they can anticipate new trends and developments days and months in advance of when the news becomes common knowledge. We provide highly responsive, real-time, client interactions and substantive analysis, within minutes of a press release or a conference call. Our opinions are not compromised by investment banking, II votes, sales commissions, or Management's opinions. Our clients have access to all our models, reports, analysis, and spreadsheets in real-time through our website.
We provide direct same-day access to the primary analyst without going through an associate or a sales person. Client conversations remain confidential. Our goal is to be a trusted outsourced "in-house analyst" and a sounding board for investment ideas. Our clients are always welcome to call or email with any questions. We visit personally with our clients on a regular basis. We host various conference calls and presentations after each market tour. Our clients are always welcome to attend our field tours. We also provide access to our growing network of private industry contacts.
Our clients are institutional money managers - hedge funds and mutual funds - who have a deep interest of being at the cutting edge of what is happening in the housing market and with the public homebuilders. We seek to build high quality, high-touch, long-term relationships with relatively few clients who understand and appreciate the value our primary field research and analysis provides. We limit our interactions to a few clients rather than trying to be all things to everyone on Wall Street to maximize the value each client receives.
We are not here to "sell" you research, "sell" you ideas, "sell" you a service, or "sell" you a stock pick. However, we are here to help you be more productive and help you make more money by being part of your team: an extension of what you are already doing.
We do not rate our stocks with Buys or Sells since our clients have different time frames, objectives, and strategies. Ultimately our clients are the stock pickers. However, we do share our views on which direction we believe the group and individual stocks will take and which names will be relative outperformers and underperformers.
Our research method uses various approaches to try to interpret and analyze what is happening in the housing market and ultimately to help us predict what is coming next. These approaches include covering every publicly traded builder from the largest to the smallest, tracking publicly available data sources of both national and regional market trends, building relationships with trusted regional data providers and industry experts, and most importantly spending a considerable amount of time on the field doing market tours. We take these observations and market data points and then try to interpret them in light of other sources of information we have access to, comparing conversations with various community sales people, builders, real estate agents, etc. We then take these bottoms up data points and use them to help us shape and refine our macro level theses and interpretations of national or regional data. Our end goal is to accurately predict builder orders, revenues, earnings, and ultimately stock performance.
We obtain much of our propietary industry information through our market tours and in-depth conversations with our industry contacts. We also track publicly available data from sources such as the US Census, SEC filings, Company websites, National Association of Realtors, universities, and other local and regional industry sources.
We have developed long-term relationships with trusted and knowledgeable industry sources who help us stay on top of the markets and the latest developments and trends. Our industry contacts include public builder management teams, private builder executives and field management, subcontractors, land developers, land brokers, local industry experts, real estate agents, mortgage lenders, mortgage brokers, and other interested parties. All our sources remain confidential.
We have historically gained an edge on our competitors and other housing industry experts on what is happening in the housing market by visiting several hundred housing communities a year throughout the country, observing what is happening in real-time, documenting our findings, and coming back every few months to compare the changes since the last time we visited. We believe this is a better approach rather than just speculating what may be happening, or relying solely on hearsay or conversations with others who may have a certain bias or agenda based on who their clients are.
Our goals are:
• To make our clients money.
• To provide an analysis of the market's expectations before earnings announcements.
• To perform quick, thorough, fundamental analysis when news are announced (i.e., earnings releases, acquisitions, etc.).
• To provide the highest quality, detailed, workable excel models of individual companies.
• To provide weekly and monthly sales updates on various builders through surveys, channel checks, and community visits.
• To provide regional market trends of existing home sales, inventories, prices, and permits.
• To provide a comprehensive basis for comparison of all the builders - large, mid, and small.
• To provide confidential, customized analyses upon request of any builder or market.